Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.