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Initially, the former US president seemed to take a resolute position on the Ukrainian conflict. After making warnings of "serious consequences" during the summer if Vladimir Putin persisted obstructing peace negotiations, the former president finally introduced substantial restrictions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This action seriously hindered Putin's ability to finance his war effort in the region.

Yet, with his latest 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, that was drafted by American and Russian officials without Ukrainian or EU input, he has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly position.

Benefiting Military Action

Trump's initiative would essentially favor Putin for attacking Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Despite ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", much of the proposal in reality undermine that very independence. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate experience, the former president persists to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a basic land disagreement, like ceding Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will appease the leader. Yet, Putin's war is not simply about occupying a destroyed area of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it no longer functions as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the accountable governance that his growing autocracy denies them.

Border Concessions

Although keeping in position the already separated Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's initiative would compel the nation to give up the entire Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unable to seize in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this surrender would make Ukraine's military defenses critically undermined.

This region is the place of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified military defenses that represent a key obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, leaving Putin a unobstructed way to Kyiv should he subsequently decide to renew the hostilities.

Armed Forces Limitations

Additionally, in a action that would enable future conflict simpler for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to reduce the size of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 personnel to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Significantly, Trump's plan places no similar limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's democratically elected administration as extremists, Trump's plan declares: "Any Nazi belief system and activities must be opposed and banned." As if to highlight this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal places no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the proposal makes Russia commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in law its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent treaties in the past – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to respect the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a truce and a restoration of seized land in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – how should anyone believe this commitment this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on external protection assurances. Although the initiative warns of a "strong coordinated military response" should the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the details range from unclear to concerning. The plan would not just block Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit Nato members from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively blocking the reassurance force, presumptively commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Russia from restoring his reduced military, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Reaction

An additional side agreement according to sources would provide the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "significant, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. But in contrast to a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's primary defense against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of alliance members, like the US administration, to act through arms to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not